SM230 Final Exam 5/6/96 - Solutions

1.

        F       A       B       Total
M       0.12    0.45    0.20    0.77
F       0.06    0.15    0.02    0.23
Total   0.18    0.60    0.22    1.0


a) 0.12+0.06+0.15+0.02 = 0.23 + 0.18 - 0.06 = 0.35

b) 0.23

c) 1-0.6 = 0.40

d) 0.06/0.23 = 0.260869

e) 0.06

f) No, 0.06 not = 0.18*0.23 = 0.0414

2. (a) P(10<X<16) = F(15) - F(10) = 0.62519-0.03569 = 0.58950222

(b) P(10<X<16) = F(15) - F(9) = 0.62519 - 0.01319 = 0.612002268

3. (a) P(10<X<16) = F(16)-F(10) = 0.7881446 - 0.054799 = 0.7333453

(b) P(10<X<24) = F(24)-F(10) = 1-0.054799 = 0.945169

4. G=10, B=25, S=8

a) P(X<3) = 0.859697

b) P(3<X<S-2) = 0.70 = F(S-2) - F(2)

S F(S-2)-F(2)

8 0.41106

10 0.6057

12 0.76407

11 0.6906

So, Select 12

5.

                HIV     not HIV         Total
Positive        0.009   0.198           0.207
Negative        0.001   0.792           0.793
Total           0.01    0.99            1.0



a) 0.009+0.792 = 0.801

b) 0.009/0.207 = 0.043478

6. a) p=0.75, N=30, Prob(X>18) = 1-Prob(X<17) = 1-0.02159 = 0.978406

b) (0.25)^4 = 0.0039

c) Prob(> 15 to get 10 pass) = Prob(< 9 pass in 14 inspected) = 0.2584654

7. 5 calls/hr

a) Prob(> 2 hrs for 12 calls) = Prob(< 11 calls in 2 hrs, L=10) = 0.696776

b) Prob(>20 calls in 3 hrs) = 1-Prob(< 20 calls, L=15) = 1 - 0.917029 = 0.0829709

c) Prob(> 3 hrs for 10 calls) = Prob(< 9 calls in 3 hrs, L=15) = 0.06985366

d) 0.80 = Prob(> 3 hrs for 2 calls) = Prob(< 1 call in 3 hrs,)

L       PCDF(X=1, L=?)
1       0.7357
2       0.406
0.8     0.8087
0.825   0.79977 



L = 0.825 -> 0.275 calls/hr

8. M=25K, S=2K

a) Prob(>30K) = 1-Prob(<30K) = 1-0.993798 = 0.0062096

b) For both, M=50K, S=2*sqrt(2) K, Prob(>60) = 1-0.99979 = 0.00020347

9. (a) X+Y=4 means (X=1,Y=3) or (X=2,Y=2) or (X=3,Y=1)

Total probability = 0.4*0.35 + 0.25*0.25 + 0.35*0.4 = 0.3425

b) 2X=4 is the same as X=2 and prob = 0.25

10. M=2.4, S=1.7

a) M for sum of 100 is 240

b) S = 1.7*sqrt(100) = 17

c) Prob(sum>250) = 1-0.72181 = 0.278187

d) Prob(avg<2.5) = Prob(sum < 250) = 0.72181

11.

        NA      Africa  Asia    Total
Detect 0.12     0.175   0.15    0.445
not D   0.28    0.175   0.10    0.555
Total   0.4     0.35    0.25    1.0


a) 0.445

b) 1-0.12 = 0.88

c) 0.25/0.88 = 0.2840909

d) Africa, P(Detect) = 0.175, which is highest