Robert Franklin
United States Naval Academy
Department of Economics
Kurtis Swope
United States Naval Academy
Department of Economics
Abstract
This paper uses station-by-station panel data from 1977-2001 to estimate
the demand for passenger boardings on the Metrorail in Washington, D.C.
We compare the estimation results using fixed effects regression, random
effects generalized least squares, random effects maximum-likelihood, and
generalized estimating equations. The results are invariant to the estimation
method, but are sensitive to inclusion of an explanatory variable that
measures level of roadway congestion. The estimated price elasticity when
roadway congestion is excluded is approximately -0.22, slightly lower than
the -0.3 elasticity estimate for public transit commonly found in the literature.
However, if we account for roadway congestion, the price elasticity increases
significantly to -0.9. This suggests a potential downward bias in previous
estimates that do not include a measure of roadway congestion. We also
find a statistically significant positive, but inelastic short-run cross-price
elasticity of demand between gasoline and the Metrorail of approximately
0.3 without, and 0.2 with, the roadway congestion variable. This suggests
that the choice of transportation mode may be sensitive even to short-run
fluctuations in motor fuel prices. Lastly, although the results indicate
a trend away from Metro use over time, Metro ridership is shown to be positively
correlated with roadway congestion and per capita income in the D.C. area.