Stockdale Center for Ethical Leadership
Ethics of Future Conflict Scenarios
Introduction
- George Friedman, The Next 100 Years (2009)
- Peter Singer and August Cole, Ghost Fleet (2015)
Methodologies
Forecasting
- Tetlock and Gardner, Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction (2015)
- Ariel Colonomos, Selling the Future (2015)
- Ariel Colonomos, “Self-Blinded Oracles in DC’s Future Market for Security” (2015)
- Robert Jervis, Why Intelligence Fails: Lessons from the Iranian Revolution and the Iraq War (2010)
- Cameron Evers, “The CIA Has a Team of Clairvoyants” (2016)
- Richards J. Heuer, Jr., Psychology of Intelligence Analysis (2010)
Scenario Building and War Gaming
- Kaplan and Orlikowski, “Beyond Forecasting: Creating New Strategic Narratives” (2014)
- Phadnis, Caplice and Sheffi, “How Scenario Planning Influences Strategic Decisions” (2016)
- U.S. Naval War College, “War Game Adjudication: Adjudication Styles”
- U.S. Naval War College, “War Gamers’ Handbook” (https://www.usnwc.edu/getattachment/Research---Gaming/War-Gaming/WGD-HB---Complete-2.pdf.aspx)
- U.S. Naval War College, “A Compendium of Wargaming Terms” (https://www.usnwc.edu/getattachment/Research---Gaming/War-Gaming/Wargaming-Terms.pdf.aspx)
- Adele Uphaus-Conner, “Narrative of the Future Developed at Science Fiction Futures Workshop” (2016) (http://www.quantico.marines.mil/News/News-Article-Display/Article/654668/narrative-of-the-future-developed-at-science-fiction-futures-workshop/)
Future Conflict Scenarios
Governmental Studies
- National Intelligence Council, Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds (2012)
- Joint Staff, “Joint Operating Environment 2035: The Joint Force in a Contested and Disordered World” (2016)
- Department of Defense, 2014 Quadrennial Defense Review
- EIA/Department of Energy, “Outlook 2015 with Projections to 2040” (2014)
Research Institutes
- Atlantic Council, Global Risks 2035: Search for a New Normal (2016)
- CSIS, “Defense 2045: Assessing the Future Security Environment and Implications for Defense Policymakers” (2015)
- Atlantic Council, “Envisioning 2030: US Strategy for the Coming Technology Revolution” (2013)
- Atlantic Council, War Stories from the Future (2015) http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/publications/books/war-stories-from-the-future
- Atlantic Council, The Future of the U.S. Army: Today, Tomorrow and the Day After Tomorrow (2016)
Academic Studies
- Benjamin Wittes and Gabriella Blum, The Future of Violence: Robots and Germs, Hackers and Drones—Confronting a New Age of Threat (2015)
- Gabriella Blum, “The Fog of Victory” (2013)
- Christopher Coker, The Future of War: The Re-Enchantment of War in the Twenty-First Century (2004)
- RAND, Stretching and Exploiting Thresholds for High-Order War: How Russian, China and Iran Are Eroding American Influence Using Time-Tested Measures Short of War (2016)
- Rosa Brooks, How Everything Became War and the Military Became Everything (2016)
- Michael O’Hanlon, The Future of Land Warfare (2015)
- Andrew Krepinevich, 7 Deadly Scenarios (2010)
- Mathew Burrows, The Future, Declassified: Megatrends That Will Undo the World Unless We Take Action (2014)
- Ray Hammond, “The World in 2030: Summary and Initial Industry Response” (2007)
- John Dulac, “Global Transport Outlook to 2050” (2012)
- Brahma Chellaney, Water, Peace, and War: Confronting the Global Water Crisis (2013)
- John J. Weltman, “Managing Nuclear Multipolarity” (1981)
- James M. Acton, Deterrence During Disarmament: Deep Nuclear Reductions and International Security (2010), chapter 5 on mulipolarity
- Jakub J. Grygiel and A. Wess Mitchell, The Unquiet Frontier: Rising Rivals, Vulnerable Allies, and The Crisis Of American Power (2016)
- Steven Biddle and Ivan Oelrich, “Future Warfare in the Western Pacific” International Security (2016)
- Jakub J. Grygiel & A. Wess Mitchell, The Unquiet Frontier: Rising Rivals, Vulnerable Allies, and the Crisis of American Power (2016)
Scenarios – Special Topics
“Hybrid” and “Grey Zone” Warfare
- James Mattis and Frank G. Hoffman, “Future Warfare: The Rise of Hybrid Wars” (2005)
- Frank G. Hoffman, “Conflict in the 21st Century” (2007)
- Frank G. Hoffman, “Hybrid vs. Compound War” (2009)
- Frank G. Hoffman, Hybrid Warfare and Challenges,” Joint Forces Quarterly (2009)
- David Kilcullen, Out of the Mountains: The Coming Age of the Urban Guerrilla (2015)
- Peter Pomerantsev, “Brave New War” (2015) (http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2015/12/war-2015-china-russia-isis/422085/?utm_source=SFFB)
- RAND, “Preparing for "Hybrid" Opponents: Israeli Experiences in Lebanon and Gaza” (2011) http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_briefs/RB9620/index1.html
- Nadia Schadlow, “The Problem with Hybrid Warfare” (2015) (http://warontherocks.com/2015/04/the-problem-with-hybrid-warfare/)
- Robert Blackwill and Jennifer Harris, War by Other Means: Geoeconomics and Statecraft (2016)
- Unrestricted Warfare, Qiao Liang and Wang Xiangsui (1999)
- “A New Generation of Unrestricted Warfare” (http://warontherocks.com/2016/04/a-new-generation-of-unrestricted-warfare/)
- Michael Raska, “China and the ‘Three Warfares’” (2015) (http://thediplomat.com/2015/12/hybrid-warfare-with-chinese-characteristics-2/)
- Rod Thornton, “The Changing Nature of Modern Warfare” (2015) (http://koziej.pl/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/Responding-to-Russian-informationwarfare.pdf)
- US Department of State, “Soviet Influence Activities: (1987) (http://jmw.typepad.com/files/state-department---a-report-on-active-measures-and-propaganda.pdf)
- How to Counter Putin’s Subversive War on the West (http://www.newsweek.com/how-counter-putin-subversive-war-west-486021)
- Michael McFaul, “How to Counter the Putin Playbook” (2016) (http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/31/opinion/sunday/how-to-counter-the-putin-playbook.html?_r=0)
- Mark Galeotti, “The ‘Gerasimov Doctrine’ and Russian Non-linear War” (2014) (https://inmoscowsshadows.wordpress.com/2014/07/06/the-gerasimov-doctrine-and-russian-non-linear-war/)
- Sam Jones, “Ukraine: Russia’s New Art of War” (2014) (http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/ea5e82fa-2e0c-11e4-b760-00144feabdc0.html#axzz4I8O4336n)
- Kaveh Waddell, “Did the NSA Get Hacked?” (2016) (http://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2016/08/did-the-nsa-get-hacked/496127/)
US Response – “Third Offset”
- Bob Work, “The Third U.S. Offset Strategy and Its Implications for Partners and Allies.” 28 January 2015 http://www.defense.gov/News/Speeches/Speech-View/Article/606641/the-third-us-offset-strategy-and-its-implications-for-partners-and-allies
- Ashton Carter, “The Path to the Innovative Future of Defense,”
- CSIS, https://www.csis.org/events/assessing-third-offset-strategy
- RealClearDefense, http://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2016/02/16/what_is_the_third_offset_strategy_109034.html
- Defense News, http://www.defensenews.com/articles/strategic-capabilities-office-preparing-for-new-programs-next-administration
- Washington Post, “Welcome to the New Arms Race” (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/checkpoint/wp/2016/06/17/robots-swarming-drones-and-iron-man-welcome-to-the-new-arms-race/)
- “Carter’s Strategic Capabilities Office” (http://breakingdefense.com/2016/02/carters-strategic-capabilities-office-arsenal-plane-missile-defense-gun/)
- David Koplow, Death by Moderation: The U.S. Military's Quest for Useable Weapons (2009)
- Robert Coram, Boyd: The Fighter Pilot Who Changed the Art of War
- John Boyd, “Patterns of War” (lecture)
Comparative Futures
- Harvard Kennedy School “Israeli Defense Forces' Defense Doctrine - English Translation” (2015) (http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/publication/26880/israeli_defense_forces_defense_doctrine_english_translation.html)
- UK MOD, “Global Strategic Trends—Out to 2045” (2014)
- Singapore Government, “The Risk Assessment and Horizon Scanning (RAHS) Programme: Future Stake” (2012)
Ethics of Future Conflict Scenarios
Ethics of Geographical Claims
- John Simmons, Boundaries of Authority (2016), chapter 4, “Territorial Rights”
- David Miller, “Territorial Rights: Concept and Justification, Political Studies (2012)
- David Lefkowitz, “Autonomy, residence, and return,” Critical Review of International Social and Political Philosophy (2014)
- Mathias Risse, “Taking up Space on Earth: Theorizing Territorial Rights, the Justification of States and Immigration from a Global Standpoint” (2015)
- Margaret Moore, A Political Theory of Territory (2015), chapter , “The Right to Territorial Integrity and the Legitimacy of the Use of Force”
Targeted Killing
- “The Hyper-Personalization of Warfare,” Georgetown Journal of International Affairs (2104) (see Mitt’s email)
- Blum, “The Individualization of War: From War to Policing in the Regulation of Armed Conflicts”
- Glenn J. Voelz, The Rise of iWar: Identity, Information, and the Individualization of Modern Warfare (2015)
- Glenn J. Voelz, “The Individualization of American Warfare” (2015)
- Jeff McMahan, ‘Targeted Killing: Murder, Combat or Law Enforcement?’ in Claire Finkelstein, Jens David Ohlin, and Andrew Altman (eds.), Targeted Killings: Law and Morality in an Asymmetrical World (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2012), pp. 135-155, at 137.
Grey Zone – Limited Lethal & Sublethal Harm
- Daniel Brunstetter and Megan Braun, “From Jus ad Bellum to Jus ad Vim: Recalibrating Our Understanding of the Moral Use of Force,” Ethics & International Affairs (2013)
- Helen Frowe, “On the Redundancy of Jus ad Vim: A Response to Daniel Brunstetter and Megan Braun, Ethics & International Affairs (2016)
- Michael L. Gross and Tamar Meisels, Soft War: The Ethics of Unarmed Conflict (2017)
- Seumas Miller, Shooting to Kill: The Ethics of Police and Military Use of Lethal Force (2016)
- ELAC, http://www.elac.ox.ac.uk/podcasts/
- Peter Squires and Peter Kennison, “Shooting to Kill? Policing, Firearms and Armed Response” (Chichester, West Sussex: John Wiley & Sons Ltd, 2010).
- John Kleinig, "Legitimate and Illegitimate Uses of Police Force," Criminal Justice Ethics, no. 2 (2014)
- John Kleinig, The Ethics of Policing (1996), Chp 6.
- Jeffrey Reiman, “The Social Contract and the Police Use of Deadly Force,” in Moral Issues in Police Work (1985)
- Simon Bronitt and Miriam Gani, "Regulating Reasonable Force: Policing in the Shadows of the Law," in Shooting to Kill: Socio-Legal Perspectives on the Use of Lethal Force, ed. S. Bronitt, M. Gani, and S. Hufnagel(Oxford and Portland, Oregon: Hart Publishing, 2012)
- Miller, Seumas, and John Blackler. Ethical Issues in Policing. Aldershot, UK: Ashgate, 2005, Chp 3.
- Miller, Seumas. Terrorism and Counter-Terrorism: Ethics and Liberal Democracy. Oxford: Blackwell Publishing Ltd, 2009, Chp 4.
- Ian Gordon and Seumas Miller, "The Fatal Police Shooting of Jean Charles De Menezes: Is Anyone Responsible?,"(2012).
- A.J. Waddington and Martin Wright, "Police Use of Force, Firearms and Riot-Control," in Handbook of Policing, ed. Tim Newburn(Uffculme: Willan Publishing, 2008
- Peter B. Kraska and Victor E. Kappeler, "Militarizing American Police: The Rise and Normalization of Paramilitary Units," Social Problems 44, no.1 (1997)
- Jerome H. Skolnick and James J. Fyfe, Above the Law: Police and the Excessive Use of Force (New York: The Free Press, 1993), 138-9
- Maurice Punch, Shoot to Kill: Police Accountability, Firearms and Fatal Force (Bristol: Policy Press, 2010).
Military cyber operations
- Edward Barrett, “Reliable Old Wineskins: The Applicability of the Just War Tradition to Military Cyber Operations,” Philosophy & Technology (2015)
- Christopher J. Eberle “Just War and Cyberwar,” Journal of Military Ethics (2013)
- George Lucas, “Ethics and Cyber Conflict: A Response to JME 12:1 (2013),” Journal of Military Ethics (2014)
- Randall Dipert, “The Ethics of Cyberwarfare,” Journal of Military Ethics (2010)
- Edward Barrett, “Warfare in a New Domain: The Ethics of Military Cyber Operations,” Journal of Military Ethics (2013)
- J. Strawser et al., eds. Binary Bullets: The Ethics of Cyberwarfare (2016)
- W. Singer and Allan Friedman, Cybersecurity and Cyberwar: What Everyone Needs to Know (2015)
- John Arquilla, “Twenty Years of Cyberwar,” Journal of Military Ethics (2013)
Military operations in space
- John Hyten and Robert Uy, “Moral and Ethical Decisions Regarding Space Warfare”
- Gregory S. Kavka, “Space War Ethics”
- Patrick Lin “Space Ethics: Look Before Taking Another Leap for Mankind”
- Mike Gruss, “Haney: JICSpOC Will Prove U.S. is Prepared for Space Threats” (http://spacenews.com/haney-jicspoc-will-prove-u-s-is-prepared-for-space-threats/)
- Colin Clark, “Two Scenarios Tested: STRATCOM’s Haney On JICSPOC Lessons” (http://breakingdefense.com/2016/01/two-scenarios-tested-stratcoms-haney-on-jicpsoc-lessons/)
Unmanned Autonomous Weapons
- Ron Arkin, “The Case for Ethical Autonomy in Unmanned Systems,” Journal of Military Ethics (2010)
- Robert Sparrow, “Killer Robots,” Journal of Applied Philosophy (2007)
- Duncan Purves, Duncan, Ryan Jenkins, BJ Strawser, “Autonomous Machines, Moral Judgment, and Acting for the Right Reasons,” Ethical Theory and Moral Practice (2015)
- Robert Sparrow, “Robots and Respect: Assessing the Case Against Autonomous Weapon Systems,” Ethics and International Affairs (2016)
- Ryan Jenkins and Duncan Purves, “Robots and Respect: A Response to Robert Sparrow,” Ethics and International Affairs (2016)
- UNIDIR, "Safety, Unintentional Risk and Accidents in the Weaponization of Increasingly Autonomous Technologies" http://unidir.org/files/publications/pdfs/safety-unintentional-risk-and-accidents-en-668.pdf
- “Shaking the Foundations: The Human Rights Implications of Killer Robots, Human Rights Watch (2014) [Rosa’s book, p. 386]
- White House report on AI (http://venturebeat.com/2016/11/05/7-takeaways-from-the-white-house-report-on-ai/)
- B.J. Strawser, et al., Killing by Remote Control (2013)
- George R. Lucas, Jr. “Ethics and UAVs”
- Jai C. Galliott “Uninhabited Aerial Vehicles and the Asymmetry Objection”
- B.J. Strawser “Moral Predators”
- Noel Sharkey “The Automation and Proliferation of Military Drones and the Protection of Civilians”,
- Noel Sharkey “Saying ‘No!’ to Lethal Autonomous Targeting”
- Daniel Brunstetter and Megan Braun “The Implication of Drones on the Just War Tradition”
- Dave Blair “A Categorical Error: Rethinking ‘Drones’ as an Analytical Category for Security Policy”
- Daniel Byman “Why Drones Work”
- Audrey Kurth Cronin, “Why Drones Fail: When Tactics Drive Strategy”
- Zenko and Kreps, “The Next Drone Wars: Preparing for Proliferation”
- David Cortright, Rachel Fairhurst, and Kristen Wall, eds., Drones and the Future of Armed Conflict: Ethical, Legal, and Strategic Implications
- Peter L. Bergen and Daniel Rothenberg, eds., Drone Wars: Transforming Conflict, Law, and Policy
Soldier Enhancement
- Pat Lin et. al., Ethics of Human Enhancement: 25 Questions & Answers (2009)
- Pat Lin et. al., Enhanced Warfighters: Risk, Ethics, and Policy (2013)
- President's Council on Bioethics, Beyond Therapy (2003), Ch. 3 Part IV ("Ethical Analysis") and Ch. 6 Part III ("Essential Sources of Concern").
- Alan Buchanan, “Moral Status and Human Enhancement,” Philosophy and Public Affairs (2009
Private Security Contractors
- Sean McFate, The Modern Mercenary: Private Armies and What They Mean for World Order (2017)
- _______, “America’s Addiction to Mercenaries”, The Atlantic (2016)
- Dave Barnes, The Ethics of Military Privatization: The US Armed Contractor Phenomenon (2016)
Proxies
- Tony Pfaff, “Military Ethics in Complex Contingencies,” in Don Snider, ed., The Future of the Army Profession (2005)
- Tony Pfaff, “Proxy War Ethics” (unpublished)
- Todd Huntley, “Controlling the Use of Power in the Shadows: Challenges in the Application of Jus in Bello to Clandestine and Unconventional Warfare Activities” (Mitt’s email)
- Andrew Mumford, “Proxy Warfare and the Future of Conflict,” The RUSI Journal (2013)
- James Pattison, “The Ethics of Arming Rebels,” Ethics & International Affairs (2015)
Privacy
- Judith Jarvis Thomson, “The Right to Privacy,” Philosophy & Public Affairs (1975)
- James Rachels, “Why Privacy is Important,” Philosophy & Public Affairs (1975)
- Thomas Scanlon, “Thomson on Privacy,” Philosophy & Public Affairs (1975)
- Jeffrey H. Reiman, “Driving to the Panopticon: A Philosophical Exploration of the Risks to Privacy Posed by the Highway Technology of the Future,” Santa Clara Computer and High Technology Law Journal (1995)
- Helen Nissenbaum, “Privacy as Contextual Integrity,” Washington Law Review (2004)
- Benjamin Wittes and Gabriella Blum, The Future of Violence (on redefining privacy)