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USNA News Center

A Warm First Week of November (04 NOV 15)

  POSTED ON: Wednesday, November 4, 2015 11:13 AM by A.R. Davies

Unseasonably warm weather is on-tap for the remainder of the work week.  As shown in the Figure below, an area of high pressure centered over interior New England on Wednesday morning will strength and move offshore throughout the week. As a result, warm southerly flow will develop.  By Friday, low pressure will be located near Lake Superior with a trailing cold front draped across the Mississippi River Valley.  The gradient between high pressure offshore and low pressure across the Upper Midwest will intensify the warm southerly flow on Friday.

6 Hour Precip (inches) and MSLP (hPa) at 0200 on 06 NOV 15

This weather pattern will generate above normal temperatures throughout the week.  The Figure below shows that there is a greater than 50% chance the high temperature will top 70oF in Annapolis on Wednesday and Thursday, with nearly a 100% on Friday.  Overall, Wednesday and Friday will be the warmest (and sunniest) days this week. Thursday will likely be cooler because a weak disturbance will move up the coast resulting in generally cloudy skies and perhaps a passing rain shower (25% chance).

Probability (%) the max temps with be > 70 degrees

The normal high temperature at BWI Airport this time of year is around 61oF, which should easily be surpassed.  However, we will not surpass the record high temperature of 83oF on Wednesday (set in 1974) or Thursday (1961).  There is a good chance the daily record high temperature will be broken on Friday (77oF set in 2005).  The Figure below shows the official National Weather Service high temperature forecast for Friday. The white circles denote locations where the forecast high will be within 1 oF (or greater) of the daily record.

NWS max temp forecast on 06 NOV 15

Looking ahead, the weak cold front will pass on Friday night and could result in some showers (50% chance).  Behind the front, seasonably cool conditions will take hold for the end of the weekend and the beginning of the work week.

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Disclaimer: This is not an official U.S. Navy weather forecast and should not be confused with the official Navy weather forecast provided by the Fleet Weather Center in Norfolk, VA.  Furthermore, the official U.S. Government forecast for the greater Annapolis area is issued by the National Weather Service Baltimore/Washington Forecast Office in Sterling, VA.


Category: General Interest

Contact:

Alexander Davies
Meteorologist & Oceanographer
Oceanography Department
  adavies@usna.edu
  410-293-6565