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USNA News Center

A Wet Week is On-tap (28 SEP 2015)

  POSTED ON: Monday, September 28, 2015 11:05 AM by A.R. Davies

The coming week will be cloudy and wet across Maryland with a chance for rain each of the next five to seven days.  On Monday, high pressure will be across the North Atlantic with a wave of low pressure off the Carolina coast.  As shown in the Figure below, these two features will direct easterly flow off the Atlantic Ocean on Monday.  As result, expect cool, mostly cloudy, and muggy conditions on Monday with off-and-on light rain or drizzle.  In addition, the easterly flow could result in some minor coast flooding in low lying areas along the western shore of the Chesapeake Bay.  This atmospheric set-up will persist into Tuesday, resulting in fog and light drizzle throughout the morning.

Near Surface Wind (kts) and MSLP (hPa) at 2200 EDT on 28 SEP

A cold front will approach the region Tuesday night, and as shown in the Figure below, it will lift the offshore low northward.  The added moisture and dynamics associated with the low pressure system will combine with the frontal dynamics to produce periods of moderate to heavy rain Tuesday night and into Wednesday (1-2” of rain is possible across the greater Annapolis region). Slow moving thunderstorms could develop and have the potential to increase the rainfall total upward of three inches in isolated locations.

MSLP (hPa) and 3 Hour Precip Total (inches) at 2300 EDT on 29 SEP

The slow moving cold front will push-through the area late Wednesday, but will not progress too far offshore.  As shown in the Figure below, two tropical features will approach the region on Thursday morning.  Offshore, the remnants of what will likely become Tropical Storm Joaquin (currently Tropical Depression Eleven as of 1000 EDT on 28 SEP) will be moving up the coast.  Further south, a tropical wave from the Gulf of Mexico will cross Florida and emerge in the Atlantic Ocean early Thursday morning (this system is also being monitored for tropical development).  At this time, it is uncertain how these features will interact with the slow moving cold front that will still be lingering just offshore on Thursday. Despite the uncertainty in the models and the progression of the tropical systems, it seems probable that the weather in Annapolis will remain unsettle through the forecast periods, and perhaps into the weekend.

MSLP (hPa) and 6 Hour Precip Total (inches) at 1400 EDT on 01 OCT

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Disclaimer: This is not an official U.S. Navy weather forecast and should not be confused with the official Navy weather forecast provided by the Fleet Weather Center in Norfolk, VA.  Furthermore, the official U.S. Government forecast for the greater Annapolis area is issued by the National Weather Service Baltimore/Washington Forecast Office in Sterling, VA.


Category: General Interest

Contact:

Alexander R. Davies
Meteorologist
Oceanography Department
  adavies@usna.edu
  410-293-6565