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Commissioning Week Weather Forecast (23 May 2016)

  POSTED ON: Monday, May 23, 2016 10:19 AM by Meteorologist A.R. Davies

Executive Summary: Commissioning Week Weather Forecast

  • Monday: Partly cloudy with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms possible in the afternoon/evening (50% chance).  North wind 5-10 mph. High near 70 oF.
  • Tuesday: Isolated morning showers (20% chance) and fog will give way to partly sunny skies by midday. Northwest wind 8-12 mph. Low: 56-60 oF. High: 72-76 oF.
  • Wednesday: Mostly sunny and seasonable.  Southwest wind 5-10 mph. Low: 58-62 oF. High: 76-80 oF.
  • Thursday: Mostly sunny and warm with increasing humidity.  Chance for showers/storms Thursday evening (30% chance).  Southwest wind 8-12 mph. Low: 60-64 oF. High: 78-82 oF.
  • Friday: A slight chance for passing morning showers (20%). Steadier rain/storms could develop in the afternoon/evening (40% chance). Otherwise partly sunny and muggy. Southwest 8-12 mph. Low: 62-66 oF. High: 76-80 oF.

The Commissioning Week Weather Forecast (above) was issued on May 23, 2016 at 1015 EDT. Continue to for the latest information. Additional updates will periodically be posted

Forecast Discussion:

An upper air wave of energy will remain entrench across the Mid-Atlantic region on Monday, resulting in a period of unsettled weather through Tuesday morning.  The figure below shows the simulated radar on Monday and gives a sense for how the day will progress. Morning showers will give way to partly sunny skies by mid-morning on Monday.  However, thanks to the upper air energy overhead, the atmosphere will be primed for shower and thunderstorm activity this afternoon/evening (any sunshine will add to the instability). Note that any showers or thunderstorms that develop Monday afternoon will be scattered and pop-up in nature.  Isolated showers could linger into Tuesday morning before the upper air system finally departs.  However, I anticipate partly sunny skies and seasonable conditions will develop by midday on Tuesday.

Simulated Radar on Monday

By midweek, the pattern will shift as an area of high pressure builds off the Southeast U.S. coast.  This will result in southerly flow and moderating temperatures throughout the week.  On Wednesday, expect mostly sunny skies and seasonable conditions (High: 76-80 oF).  By Thursday, the dominate wind direction will shift out of the south (thanks to clockwise flow around the area of high pressure), resulting in a bump in both the high temperature (near 80 oF) and in the humidity.  In addition, some afternoon/evening showers or thunderstorms could develop on Thursday as a slow moving weather system gradually approaches from the west.  A few light rain showers could linger into Friday morning.  During the day on Friday, expect a mix of clouds and sun with warm and muggy conditions. Showers will likely be in the area on Friday thanks to the slowly approaching weather system, but it looks like the best chance for showers/storms will be in the afternoon/evening.  As the week progresses, the details for Friday will become refined.  At this time, I would say forecast confidence for Friday remains fairly low.

ISSUED: 23 May 2016 at 1015
NEXT FORECAST: 24 May 2016
FORECASTER: Meteorologist A.R. Davies
Disclaimer: This is not an official U.S. Navy weather forecast and should not be confused with the official Navy weather forecast provided by the Fleet Weather Center in Norfolk, VA.  Furthermore, the official U.S. Government forecast for the greater Annapolis area is issued by the National Weather Service Baltimore/Washington Forecast Office in Sterling, VA. Click here for full disclaimer.

Category: General Interest


Alexander Davies
Meteorologist and Oceanographer
Oceanography Department, USNA