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Commissioning Week Weather Forecast (25 May 2016)

  POSTED ON: Wednesday, May 25, 2016 7:36 AM by Meteorologist A.R. Davies

Commissioning Week Weather Forecast:

  • Wednesday: Sunny and warm. Air quality alert (Code Orange) is in effect. Northwest wind 5-10 mph in the morning. Southwest wind 8-12 mph in the afternoon. High near 83 oF.
  • Thursday: Partly sunny and warm with increasing humidity.  Chance for showers/storms Thursday evening (40% chance).  South wind 8-12 mph. Low: 64-68 oF. High: 82-86 oF.
  • Friday: Partly cloudy, warm, and sticky. Chance for scattered, pop-up showers and thunderstorms beginning around midday (30% chance). South wind 8-12 mph. Low: 64-68 oF. High: 82-86 oF.

The Commissioning Week Weather Forecast (above) was issued on May 23, 2016 at 1015 EDT. Continue to for the latest information. Additional updates will periodically be posted 

Forecast Discussion:

An area of high pressure will become entrenched off the Southeast U.S. coast for the remainder of Commissioning Week.  This is a typical “summer time” pattern with southerly flow ushering in warmer temperatures and an increase in the humidity. Expect high temperatures in the mid 80’s this week with the dew point temperature (measure of how much moisture is in the air) increasing from a comfortable 51 oF as of 0600 on Wednesday morning to a sticky 68 oF by Friday afternoon.  Sunny skies will prevail on Wednesday, with partly cloudy skies Thursday and Friday. The increase in humidity on Friday could create some air quality issues, as well. The heat index on Thursday and Friday is expected to approach 90 oF.   

The increase in temperatures and humidity will also result in a less stable atmosphere.   Scattered pop-up showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across Maryland late Thursday afternoon/evening.  Any Bay Breeze could enhance storms chances.  By Friday, isolated pop-up showers and thunderstorms could begin to develop by noon across the Mid-Atlantic region, with chances increasing throughout the afternoon/evening.  There will not be a coherent front or weather feature associated with these storms; if they develop, they will be purely pop-up in nature and difficult to forecast exact timing/location.  The figure below shows the scattered, pop-up showers and storms developing on simulated radar (4km high res NAM model) Thursday and Friday.

 Simulated Radar Thurs and Fri

ISSUED: 25 May 2016 at 0800
NEXT FORECAST: 26 May 2016
FORECASTER: Meteorologist A.R. Davies
Disclaimer: This is not an official U.S. Navy weather forecast and should not be confused with the official Navy weather forecast provided by the Fleet Weather Center in Norfolk, VA.  Furthermore, the official U.S. Government forecast for the greater Annapolis area is issued by the National Weather Service Baltimore/Washington Forecast Office in Sterling, VA. Click here for full disclaimer.

Category: General Interest


Alexander Davies
Meteorologist and Oceanographer
Oceanography Department, USNA