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USNA News Center

Hot and Humid Conditions this Week (31-AUG-2015)

  POSTED ON: Monday, August 31, 2015 9:57 AM by author of the story

Over the weekend, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) officially downgraded Erika to a tropical wave.  NHC issued the final forecast advisory for the system at 0930 EDT on 29 August and no redevelopment is expected at this time.  As Tropical Storm Erika entered the Caribbean Sea late last week, the Lesser Antilles Islands were pounded by strong wind and heavy rain.  The island nation of Dominica was hit particularly hard as a foot or more of rain likely fell at Canefield Airport (TDCF) over a two-day period.  As of 1037 on 28 August, The Dominican news service reports that at least 35 deaths can be attributed to Erika, with people still missing.

The remnants of Erika are still lingering across the eastern Gulf of Mexico.  Although there is no well-defined center of circulation, a tropical wave is clearly evident in the Precipitable Water data shown in the figure below. Precipitable Water is the amount of water that would fall if all the moisture in the atmosphere were to rain-out (i.e. the more perceptible water, the more moisture in the air).  As this slug of moisture slowly tracks north over the next two days, locally heavy rainfall is possible across Florida.  The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) in College Park, MD suggests the heaviest rain and greatest risk for flooding will likely be along the west central coast of Florida (2 to 3 inches of rain possible).

Precipitable Water on 31 Aug at 1200 EDT

However, the remnants of Erika will likely not progress as for north as Annapolis, MD thanks to an area of high pressure overhead.  As shown in the figure below, over the next five days a persistent ridge of high pressure will be the dominant weather feature across the eastern half of the United States. While waves of energy could spin-up isolated thunderstorms on Wednesday evening and Friday evening, expect the first week of September to be generally dry with unseasonably hot and humid conditions.

500 mb Geopotential Height Anomaly


Disclaimer: This is not an official U.S. Navy weather forecast and should not be confused with the official Navy weather forecast provided by the Fleet Weather Center in Norfolk, VA.  Furthermore, the official U.S. Government forecast for the greater Annapolis area is issued by the National Weather Service Baltimore/Washington Forecast Office in Sterling, VA.  The official U.S. Government tropical cyclone forecasts for the Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico (including Tropical Storm Erika) are issued by the National Hurricane Center in Miami, FL. This weather discussion is supplemental weather product offered by the Oceanography Department.

Category: General Interest


Alexander R. Davies
Oceanography Department