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USNA News Center

Unseasonably warm weather this weekend; another chance for winter weather next week (19 Feb 16)

  POSTED ON: Friday, February 19, 2016 9:39 AM by A.R. Davies

A warm front will lift to our north Friday evening.  Southerly flow behind the front will usher in unseasonably warm air on Saturday and Sunday; the normal high temperature at BWI Airport this time of year is 46 oF.  The projected high temperatures across the area on Saturday (see Figure below) will be in the upper 50’s, which is around 10 oF above normal.  On Sunday, more clouds will build with high temperatures in the mid 50’s and a chance for rain late in the afternoon or evening.

High Temperature Project on Saturday

Another weather system looms for next Tuesday and Wednesday.  The Figure below outlines the most probable scenario. A low pressure system from the Gulf of Mexico will track up the Ohio River Valley and west of Maryland on Tuesday night.  High pressure to our north has the potential to keep cold air “trapped” at the surface as the precipitation shield initially arrives (potential for snow/mix/rain Tuesday night or early Wednesday).  The original low may transfer some energy to a developing coastal low on Wednesday.  There is no model consensus on if, how, when, where the transfer of energy to the coast will happen or how intense the resulting system could be.  If the coastal storm develops closer to shore, a cold rain/snow mix event would likely occur (50% chance of this scenario).  If the storm develops further off the coast and can wrap in colder air from the north, a plowable mix/snow event could occur (30% of this scenario).  If energy is not transferred to a coastal system and the original low continues to track into interior New England, expect all rain (20% chance of this scenario).  Details we will be refined over the coming days.

Storm Scenario for Tue/Weds


Disclaimer: This is not an official U.S. Navy weather forecast and should not be confused with the official Navy weather forecast provided by the Fleet Weather Center in Norfolk, VA.  Furthermore, the official U.S. Government forecast for the greater Annapolis area is issued by the National Weather Service Baltimore/Washington Forecast Office in Sterling, VA.

Category: General Interest


Meteorologist Alexander Davies
Oceanography Department, U.S. Naval Academy