Welcome to True But False (TBF)!!!! TBFs are weekly observations of people and organizations making claims about data that may lead people to the wrong decision. The claim is factually true, but the claim's implication is misleading or false. It's probably true in a court of law, but it uses sloppy analysis, misuses data, or leaves out critical information!
Our first edition of True But False (TBF!) comes from Farmer's Insurance:
You've heard statements like this from many insurance company advertisements, "Switch now and save on average $500 on your insurance!"
True? yes, although we admittedly can't verify the statement, but let's trust the insurance companies who make these claims.
Intention? The intent is to convince YOU that you would also save money if you switched. Right? Why wouldn't you? If the average switcheroo saved $500, why not me too?
False? Unfortunately, the intent is too good to be true. If everyone could switch and save, all other insurers would be out of business. Since this is a statement about an average, we need to consider the population that is included in the average. Do people switch if the company quotes them a more expensive quote? How many switch if it is cheaper? You probably agree that the bulk of switchers are the people who got cheaper quotes. When you consider it for a minute, you should now see that of course the average switcher saved money because otherwise they would not have switched! We simplify this a bit by assuming that price is the only reason to switch, but it's probably not far from the truth. This doesn't mean YOU will save money. Many people already have cheap insurance plans, and you might be in that other population.
Unfortunately, since this is a true statement taken literally, you'll be hearing it for the rest of your life.