Accumulating Snow Possible Wednesday Night through Friday
POSTED ON: Tuesday, February 9, 2021 4:29 PM by METEOROLOGIST A.R. DAVIES
Multiple areas of Low pressure will likely track along a pseudo-stationary front to our south through the end of the week. As a result, there will be multiple “chances” for wintry precipitation through Friday and potentially into the weekend. While 3.0 to 6.0 inches of snow seems plausible Wednesday night through Friday in Annapolis, it will likely come in “waves” and therefore I will try to take that approach in the forecast (instead of one snowfall map over a time frame of multiple days).
The first wave of energy will likely pass Wednesday night through early afternoon on Thursday. Ahead of the precipitation, a front will pass tonight with seasonably cold air behind it. This will set the stage for accumulating snow starting between 2100 and midnight on Wednesday and continuing through midday Thursday. There is still some spread in the model guidance as to where the heaviest precipitation will occur, and it is dependent on how far south the cold front pushes tonight. Specifically, the ECMWF European Model pushes the front well into Virginia which would result in the heaviest precipitation across Southern MD (Annapolis on the northern edge). Meanwhile the other operational models (GFS/American, NAM/HiRes, GEM/Canadian) keep the front nearby and the heaviest precipitation along and north of U.S. Route 50, with a wintry mix to the south. My current forecast splits the difference and bakes in the uncertainty. I currently expect 2.0 to 5.0 inches of snow in Annapolis through 1200 on Thursday with a 35% chance of < 2.0 inches and 15% chance of > 5.0 inches. See map below for details.
There could be a lull in snow Thursday afternoon with the next wave expected to arrive Thursday evening and continue until into Friday morning. Once again, the location of the stalled arctic front will be important for the location of the heaviest snowfall. Right now, it looks like the front will push far enough south for the heaviest snowfall to be south of Annapolis. The current forecast is for 1.0 to 2.0 inches of snow in Annapolis with a 15% chance of < 1.0 inch and 30% chance of 2.0 to 5.0 inches (see map below).
ISSUED: 09 February 2021 at 1625
FORECASTER: Meteorologist A.R. Davies
Category: Press Releases, General Interest