Commissioning Week Weather Forecast 2024

  POSTED ON: Monday, May 20, 2024 8:10 AM by METEOROLOGIST A.R. DAVIES

Executive Summary:

• Wednesday: Mostly sunny and warm with increasing humidity. Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible in the evening and overnight (30%c chance). South wind 8-13 mph. High near 84 ^oF.
• Thursday: Partly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms likely in the afternoon, evening, and overnight (60% chance). Some storms could become strong or severe.  South wind 8-13 mph. High: 80-84 ^oF.
• Friday: A mix of clouds and sun with scattered showers and thunderstorms possible (30% chance). Southeast wind around 5 mph. High: 80-84 ^oF.

Forecast Discussion:

Wednesday will be sunny, warm, and seasonable during the day with increasing humidity. Scattered showers and thunderstorm are possible Wednesday evening as high pressure offshore starts giving-way to an approaching trough and front set to impact the region over the coming days. While not widespread, isolated storms could become strong or perhaps severe, but that is more likely west of the metro regions on Wednesday.

The aforementioned front will nudge closer to the region on Thursday, likely stalling just to our north in along the MD-PA line late Thursday night or early Friday morning. The approaching front will aid in the development of more widespread showers and thunderstorms on Thursday. Right now it looks like the showers/storms are more likely after 1200 EDT, with the best chance in the late afternoon and evening. More scattered showers and thunderstorms could linger overnight. The National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center has Central Maryland categorized as under a “marginal risk” for severe weather with a 5% chance of damaging wind gusts >58 mph and 5% chance of hail > 1.0 inch in diameter within 25 miles. Depending on how the front approaches, slows, and stall, the risk for severe weather has the potential to increase tomorrow, particularly south of US-50.

With the stalled front likely just to our north, the weather Friday has the potential to be unsettled. Expect a mix of clouds and sun with high temperatures in the low-80s and dew point temperature in the mid- to upper-60s (making it a more humid day). Showers are possible throughout the morning, although they will likely be scattered. An all-morning soaking rain is not currently anticipated. There could be some rumbles of thunder as well, but that is more likely in the afternoon and evening closer to the maximum diurnal heating.

All forecasts are available at https://usna.edu/Weather/.

ISSUED: 22 May 2024 at 0842
FORECASTER: Meteorologist A.R. Davies

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Disclaimer: This is not an official U.S. Navy weather forecast and should not be confused with the official Navy weather forecast provided by the Fleet Weather Center in Norfolk, VA.  Furthermore, the official U.S. Government forecast for the greater Annapolis area is issued by the National Weather Service Baltimore/Washington Forecast Office in Sterling, VA. Click here for full disclaimer.

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