Skip to main content Skip to footer site map
USNA News Center
USNA News Center

Commissioning Week Weather Forecast (UPDATED: 22 MAY 2019)

  POSTED ON: Monday, May 20, 2019 12:09 PM by Meteorologist A.R. Davies

Executive Summary:
  • Wednesday: Mostly sunny and pleasant. Rain showers possible overnight (20% chance). Southeast wind 5-10 mph. High: 72-76 oF.
  • Thursday: Partly cloudy and warm with increasing humidity. Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible (40% chance). Isolated storms could become strong or severe overnight. South wind 8-13 mph. High: 82-86 oF.
  • Friday: Partly sunny and warm with decreasing humidity. A slight chance for a passing sprinkle (10% chance). North wind 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph. High: 80-84 oF.

Forecast Discussion:

Wednesday will be another beautiful spring day in Annapolis with mostly sunny skies and a high temperature in the mid-70s. A warm front will push through the region late tonight/early on Thursday morning with a noticeable increase in temperatures (mid-80s) and humidity (Heat Index near 90oF) on Thursday. Scattered showers are also possible late Wednesday night through midday on Thursday as the warm front passes. However, partly sunny skies will generally prevail and an all-day rain event is not anticipated.

A cold front will approach the region late Thursday night, before passing early Friday morning. Showers and thunderstorms are likely on Thursday night ahead of the approaching front, as shown by simulated radar in the figure below. Some storms could be strong or severe on Thursday night and the National Weather Service has indicated that we are under a “slight risk” for severe weather. However, the overnight timing of the thunderstorms should help reduce the overall severity in Annapolis whereas parts of northern Maryland and southern Pennsylvania as under an enhanced risk for severe thunderstorms.

As annotated in the simulated radar figure below, the front will likely be south of Annapolis by mid-morning on Friday.  While the front will result in almost no change in the air temperature for Friday (the high will likely still be in the 80s), it will usher in a noticeably less humid air mass. The exact timing of the frontal passage is a bit uncertain, and therefore muggy conditions could linger through mid-morning with isolated sprinkles/showers if the front is slow moving. The frontal passage will also result in a shift in the winds from southwest to northwest with gusts as high as 25 mph. 

The front will stall across the Carolina’s on Saturday and meander north-south across the Mid-Atlantic States over the holiday weekend. Right now the weekend forecast looks warm and generally sunny, but unsettled weather is not out of the question with a stalled front in the vicinity.

ISSUED: 22 May 2019 at 0930
FORECASTER: Meteorologist A.R. Davies

---

Disclaimer: This is not an official U.S. Navy weather forecast and should not be confused with the official Navy weather forecast provided by the Fleet Weather Center in Norfolk, VA.  Furthermore, the official U.S. Government forecast for the greater Annapolis area is issued by the National Weather Service Baltimore/Washington Forecast Office in Sterling, VA. Click here for full disclaimer.

 


Category: Research

Press Contact

Alexander R. Davies
Meteorologist & Oceanographer
Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences Department, USNA
  adavies@usna.edu
  410-293-6565