Snow possible on Super Bowl Sunday

  POSTED ON: Friday, February 5, 2021 7:02 AM by METEOROLOGIST A.R. DAVIES

A coastal Low will likely develop off the U.S. Southeast coast on Saturday evening and rapidly move to the northeast. The Low is expected track along the Carolina coast overnight, but uncertainty remains as to the storm track once the system gets north of Cape Hatteras, NC. If the storm is closer to the coast, this could increase overall precipitation amounts while also bringing more warm air into Maryland (which could impact snow totals). If the storm continues on a northeast track, this would ensure a mostly snow event for most of Central Maryland and the Delmarva Peninsula, but precipitation totals would like be less.

I am currently leaning toward the second solution, which is supported by both the ECMWF/European and GFS/American Global Operational Models (and their ensemble means). The snow will likely arrive around midnight (perhaps even beginning as light drizzle/rain until temperatures in the atmosphere thermodynamically cool below freezing) and continue until midday. Snowfall rates will likely be light or steady, and could periodically exceed 0.5 inches/hour. However, temperatures on Saturday are expected to surge into the mid- to upper-40’s and that will likely impact accumulation totals. In fact, temperatures throughout the event in Annapolis will likely hover near freezing (perhaps a degree colder along I-95). I suspect that around 6.0 inches of snow will likely fall on the Annapolis area but less will likely accumulate on treated surfaces because of the surface temperatures. The current forecast (see snowfall map) is for 2.0 to 4.0 inches of snow accumulation with a 15% chance of < 2.0 inches and 25% chance of > 4.0 inches. Accumulation amounts will likely be less on roads or treated surfaces.

Based on the current track, less snow is currently expected north and west of the metros (1.0 to 2.0 inches). A big wildcard is the Maryland, Delaware, and Virginia coastal communities. Precipitation rates will likely be higher along the Shore, but temperatures will likely be marginal. This could result in a heavy wintry mix, but all snow (heavy) or all rain scenarios also cannot be ruled out.

Updates will be distributed to the USNA Weather email list over the weekend, as needed.

ISSUED: 05 February 2021 at 0700
FORECASTER: Meteorologist A.R. Davies

Category: Press Releases, General Interest