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Commissioning Week Weather Forecast (22 MAY 2017)

  POSTED ON: Monday, May 22, 2017 9:39 AM by METEOROLOGIST A.R. DAVIES

Executive Summary (Updated 0900 EDT on 23 May 2017):

  • Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the afternoon (60% chance). Northeast wind 5-10 mph. High: 68-72 oF.
  • Wednesday: Mostly cloudy conditions in the morning will give way to a mix of clouds and sun by midday. Increasing clouds and rain showers are likely overnight (75% chance). Minor coastal flooding possible around high tides at 0439 and 1634 EDT. Southeast wind 5-10 mph. High: 70-74 oF.
  • Thursday: Partly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely (80% chance). Minor coastal flooding possible around high tide at 0531 EDT. South wind 8-13 mph. High: 72-76 oF.
  • Friday: Partly cloudy skies and a few lingering morning showers (20% chance) will give way to mostly sunny skies and breezy conditions in the afternoon. Northwest wind 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph. High: 74-78 oF.

Forecast Discussion:

An active and unsettled patterned remains in the forecast for Commissioning Week.

A warm front will push through the Maryland area on Monday morning with periods of rain.  At the time, the rain is expect to taper between 1100 and 1400 EDT.  After the steady rain departs, a cold front will pass during the afternoon/evening with scattered showers and thunderstorms possible. The high resolution HRRR model simulated radar below show the back edge of the steady rain in the Annapolis vicinity around 1400 EDT today, with some scattered showers/thunderstorm on the back side.  The situation remains fluid and therefore any threat for approaching storms/lightning will need to be monitor closely throughout the day. Note: This forecast was made in coordination with the U.S. National Weather Service’s Baltimore/Washington Forecast office.

20170522_1

The next wave of energy moves up the coast on Tuesday afternoon/evening.  Annapolis will remain on the north side of the system and the exact track will determine how far north the precipitation extends.  At this time, it looks like a slight chance for passing rain showers through midday on Tuesday, with higher rain chances as the system approach in the afternoon/evening.  The latest NAM model shows the center of the storm near the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay around 1700 EDT on Tuesday.  This model optimistically shows the bulk of the rain south of Annapolis, but the majority of the forecast guidance suggests a chance for off and on rain throughout the day, with more consistent rain in the afternoon/evening.  Either way, overcast skies could be an issue for the Blue Angels. 

20170522_2

The next storm will likely arrive on Wednesday. There remains considerable uncertainty with how this system will play out late in the week because the forecast guidance remains inconsistent. At this time, it looks like rain chances during the daylight hours on Wednesday are low.  However, as shown by the latest NAM model below, an area of low pressure will move into the lower Ohio River Valley by Wednesday evening with a complex frontal structure ahead of it.  

20170522_3

Rain is expected to develop along the front in late in the afternoon or in the evening on Wednesday. As the system passes, periods of rain are likely throughout the day on Thursday. Embedded thunderstorms are also not out of the question.  Most models suggest that the bulk of the steady rain will be out of the area overnight on Thursday, leaving gradually clearing skies, passing morning showers, and breezy conditions on Friday.  Forecast confidence remains low Wednesday-Friday; continue to check back for details.

20170522_4

ISSUED: 22 May 2017 at 0945
FORECASTER: Meteorologist A.R. Davies
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Disclaimer: This is not an official U.S. Navy weather forecast and should not be confused with the official Navy weather forecast provided by the Fleet Weather Center in Norfolk, VA.  Furthermore, the official U.S. Government forecast for the greater Annapolis area is issued by the National Weather Service Baltimore/Washington Forecast Office in Sterling, VA. Click here for full disclaimer.

Category: General Interest

Contact:

Alexander R. Davies
Meteorologist and Oceanographer
Oceanography Department, USNA
  mediarelations@usna.edu
  410-293-2292