Commissioning Week Weather Forecast (24 MAY 2017)

  POSTED ON: Wednesday, May 24, 2017 5:19 AM by METEOROLOGIST A.R. DAVIES

Executive Summary:

• Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with light rain showers possible during the morning commute. A mix of clouds and sun by midday with increasing clouds and rain likely overnight (75% chance). East wind 5-10 mph. High: 68-72 ^oF.
• Thursday: Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely (80% chance). Minor coastal flooding possible around high tide at 0531 EDT. Southeast wind 8-13 mph. High: 72-76 ^oF.
• Friday: Partly cloudy skies and isolated showers in the morning (20% chance) will give way to mostly sunny skies and breezy conditions by midday. Northwest wind 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph. High: 74-78 ^oF.

Forecast Discussion:

On Wednesday the region will be sandwiched between two weather systems. To our east, the departing coastal storm that brought rain showers overnight and to our west, an approaching upper air disturbance.  The simulated radar below is valid at 1400 EDT on Wednesday and illustrates the atmospheric pattern. As a result, the day light hours on Wednesday will be generally rain-free with perhaps some breaks in the cloud deck around midday and for the Blue Angels airshow scheduled for 1400 EDT.

Rain showers will develop Wednesday evening and the rain could become heavy overnight with embedded thunderstorms.  The steady rain will likely depart around midday on Thursday.  The simulated radar below indicates that the primary rain shield will be departing to our northeast by 1100 EDT on Thursday. However, this will need to be monitored closely for potential impacts on the Color Parade scheduled for 1100 EDT on Thursday.

Minor/nuisance coastal flooding will be possible on Thursday during the morning high tide around 0530 EDT.  The water could be high enough to cover Ramsay Drive, which could impact traffic/parking on Hospital point during the morning commute. 

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely throughout the afternoon and evening on Thursday. If the sun breaks through the clouds, there could be enough instability for strong thunderstorms to develop. The simulated radar below shows the threat for some organized convection late Thursday afternoon, but I want to emphasize that scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible throughout the day (not just at 1600).

The upper air system will depart early on Friday morning.  However, there still could be enough energy to spin up some light passing showers/drizzle through mid-morning. If showers linger, they likely will not be convective (i.e. low probability of lightning). By late morning, any lingering rain showers will disperse which is shown in the model below. Friday will be breezy with 10-15 mph sustained winds out of the northwest, gusting to 25 mph.

Category: General Interest