Commissioning Week Weather Outlook

  POSTED ON: Wednesday, May 19, 2021 1:40 PM by METEOROLOGIST A.R. DAVIES

Executive Summary:

• Saturday: Seasonably hot with a mix of clouds and sun. A slight chance for isolated afternoon/evening showers or thunderstorms (20% chance). West wind 5-10 mph. High: 88-92 ^oF.
• Sunday: Mostly sunny and hot. A slight chance for evening/overnight showers or thunderstorms (20% chance). Northwest wind 8-13 mph. High: 90-94 ^oF.
• Monday: Partly cloudy with showers possible in the afternoon, evening, and overnight (30% chance). Northeast wind 8-13 mph. High: 76-80 ^oF.
• Tuesday: Partly cloudy and seasonable. East wind 5-10 mph.  High: 80-84 ^oF.
• Wednesday: Partly sunny and seasonably hot. Showers and thunderstorms possible in the evening and overnight (40% chance). West wind 5-10 mph. High: 88-92 ^oF.
• Thursday: Partly sunny and warm with scattered showers and thunderstorms possible in the afternoon, evening, and overnight (30% chance).  West wind 10-15 mph. High: 84-88 ^oF.
• Friday: Partly sunny and mild. Variable wind 5-10 mph. High: 80-84 ^oF.

Forecast Discussion:

A robust area of high pressure over the Southeast U.S. will remain the dominant weather feature over the next five to ten days. Expect sunny and seasonably warm conditions through the end of the week.

A series of relatively weak frontal systems and upper-air waves of energy will approach from the north or west during the forecast period, and try to displace/weaken the aforementioned area of high pressure. The first piece of energy will quickly pass on Saturday with increased cloud cover and a slight chance for afternoon and evening showers. A backdoor cold front will approach and pass on Sunday. The front could provide enough lift/energy for showers and thunderstorms, but right now that looks more likely across northern Maryland. I left a 20% chance of showers/storms in the forecast as this could change if the front looks faster or stronger over the coming days. Either way, I am not expecting a washout, rather more isolated/scattered showers/storms.

The above-mentioned front will likely stall to our south on Monday before lifting to our north as a warm front Monday night. This could also trigger scattered showers in the afternoon, evening, and overnight. Temperatures will rebound into the low-80s on Tuesday, before surging into the upper-80 or low-90s on Wednesday and Thursday. Frontal boundaries will likely be pseudo-stalled in our vicinity Tuesday through Thursday of next week. Forecast confidence is therefore not high in this time frame and scattered showers/storms cannot be ruled out, although a total washout does not seem likely any of the days.

Both the ECMWF/Euro and GFS/American operational forecast models are suggesting a cold front will pass Thursday evening/overnight. If this scenario plays out, high temperatures will likely drop back into the low-80s behind for graduation day with a diminished chance for precipitation. However, as mentioned above, the forecast pattern with a strong area of high pressure to our south and various pseudo-stalled (and relatively weak) frontal boundaries in our vicinity leads to a lack of forecast confidence.

Continue to check back for updates and information. Standard Five-day forecasts will be issued daily on weekdays during Commissioning Week, and detailed Graduation forecasts will be issued on 24 and 26 May, with an additional forecast on 27 May, if needed.  All forecasts can be accessed online at www.usna.edu/weather.

ISSUED: 19 May 2019 at 1400
FORECASTER: Meteorologist A.R. Davies

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Disclaimer: This is not an official U.S. Navy weather forecast and should not be confused with the official Navy weather forecast provided by the Fleet Weather Center in Norfolk, VA.  Furthermore, the official U.S. Government forecast for the greater Annapolis area is issued by the National Weather Service Baltimore/Washington Forecast Office in Sterling, VA. Click here for full disclaimer.

Category: General Interest