USNA Weather Forecast
Forecast Discussion:
A slow-moving (almost stalled) cutoff upper-air Low will continue to churn overhead this weekend. At the surface a resulting Nor’easter will continue to develop and meander along the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast coast. Although surface features resulting from closed upper-air disturbance are notoriously pesky to forecast, the model guidance is in a reasonably good agreement and suggests the storm (currently located offshore of the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay) will move northward and strengthen over the next 36 hours. Saturday night into Sunday, the model guidance suggests that the storm will retrograde westward toward the U.S. coast. This scenario would continue to wreak havoc on coastal communities from Ocean City, MD to Rockport, MA. More locally, as long as the storm forecast remains parallel in latitude or north of Annapolis, the wind direction will be predominately out of the north which is not favorable for high-impact coastal flooding here. Instead, minor coastal flooding is likely during high tide this weekend with an outside chance of moderate coastal flooding on Sunday. However, unfortunately the chance for rain is also back in the forecast this weekend. While we likely won’t get a total washout, rainfall totals over the weekend could accumulate to around 1.0 inches with scattered showers and on-and-off periods of rain. If steady rain were to fall around high tides, compound flooding could occur in low-lying areas or around drainage outfalls.
By Monday and Tuesday, the storm will slowly weaken and clear the region.
Weather Forecast:
- Friday: Partly sunny, breezy, and seasonable. North wind 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph. High near 73 oF.
- Saturday: Mostly cloudy, windy, and cool. Rain showers possible through midday (30% chance). Periods or rain or drizzle possible in the afternoon, evening, and overnight (50% chance). North wind 15-20 mph, gusting to 32 mph. Low: 52-56 oF. High: 66-70 oF.
- Sunday: Mostly cloudy, breezy, and cool. Periods of rain and scattered showers possible (50% chance). North wind 13-18 mph, gusting to 28 mph. Low: 56-60 oF. High: 64-68 oF.
- Monday: Mostly cloudy and seasonably cool. North wind 8-13 mph. Low: 56-60 oF. High: 66-70 oF.
- Tuesday: Partly sunny and seasonable. Variable wind around 5 mph. Low: 58-62 oF. High: 72-76 oF.
High Tide Flooding Forecast:
- Minor coastal flooding is possible around high tide today at 1707 with maximum water levels between 2.4 and 2.8 ft MLLW.
- Minor coastal flooding is possible around high tide at 0519 on 26 September with maximum water levels between 2.2 and 2.7 ft MLLW.
- Minor coastal flooding is possible around high tide at 1754 on 26 September with maximum water levels between 2.3 and 2.8 ft MLLW.
- Minor coastal flooding is likely around high tide at 0555 on 27 September with maximum water levels between 2.7 and 3.2 ft MLLW.
- Minor coastal flooding is likely and moderate coastal flooding is possible around high tide at 1840 on 27 September with maximum water levels between 2.9 and 3.4 ft MLLW.
- Minor coastal flooding is possible around high tide at 0632 on 28 September with maximum water levels between 2.2 and 2.6 ft MLLW.
- High tide flooding is not anticipated on 29 September, but the forecast is uncertain.
ISSUED: 25 September 2026 at 0945
NEXT FORECAST: 28 September 2026
FORECASTER: Meteorologist A.R. Davies
