USNA Weather
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USNA Weather Forecast

Forecast Discussion:

An upper air low pressure system will detached from the prevailing flow on Wednesday and become nearly stationary over the Ohio River Valley through the end of the work week. As a result, expect periods of rain and thunderstorms from Wednesday afternoon through midday on Saturday.  Rainfall totals around 3.0 inches will be widespread throughout the Mid-Atlantic region, however localized pockets of heavy, training rain are likely (i.e. heavy rain showers repeated developing over the same location).  Hence, isolated rainfall totals could approach 6.0 inches over the next few days with rainfall rate near 1.0 inch per hour.  At this time, it is unclear where, when, or if the heavy, training rain will occur; that will likely be a “nowcast” scenario. Due to the potential for heavy rain and flooding, the National Weather Service has issued a Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning.  In addition to the rainfall, steady easterly winds will push Chesapeake Bay water against the western shore and into the harbors and tributaries over the coming days. This will cause minor “nuisance” coastal flooding which could be exasperated in the event of heavy rainfall/runoff (particularly during high tide). By Saturday the upper air low pressure system will begin to lift north with some lingering scattered showers across Maryland.  Sunday will likely be dry. 

Note: MIDN student forecasters majoring in oceanography will contribute to the daily weather forecasts throughout the Fall 2016 Semester.  This activity is completely voluntary as part of the Oceanography Club ECA.

Five Day Forecast:

  • Wednesday: Increasing clouds with isolated showers through midday. Mostly cloudy by late afternoon with periods of rain and thunderstorms developing and continuing throughout the evening and overnight (100% chance).  The rain could become heavy at times overnight and into early Thursday morning with 2.0 to 3.0 inches of rain possible through sunrise on Thursday. East wind increasing to 10-15 mph. High near 73 oF.
  • Thursday: Mostly cloudy with periods of steady/heavy rain and thunderstorms. 1.0 to 3.0 inches of rain is possible on Thursday/Thursday night. East wind 12-18, gusting to 25 mph. Low: 66-70 oF. High: 72-76 oF.
  • Friday: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely. Some showers could contain steady or perhaps brief periods of heavy rain. East wind 10-20 mph. Low: 66-70 oF. High: 72-76 oF.
  • Saturday: Partly cloudy with scattered rain showers. Southeast wind 8-12 mph. Low: 64-68 oF. High: 74-78 oF.
  • Sunday: Mostly sunny and seasonably cool. West wind around 5 mph. Low: 64-68 oF. High: 72-76. oF.
ISSUED: 28 September 2016 at 0815
NEXT FORECAST: 30 September 2016
STUDENT FORECASTER(S): N/A
FORECASTER: Meteorologist A.R. Davies
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