Commissioning Week Weather Forecast

  POSTED ON: Monday, May 24, 2021 2:06 PM by METEOROLOGIST A.R. DAVIES

Executive Summary:

• Monday: Mostly cloudy and seasonably cool with showers possible in the afternoon and evening (30% chance). East wind 8-13 mph. High near 70 ^oF.
• Tuesday: Partly cloudy and seasonable. Southeast wind 8-13 mph. Low: 58-62 ^oF. High: 76-80 ^oF.
• Wednesday: Partly sunny, hot, and humid. Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible in the late afternoon and evening (50% chance). Isolated storms could become strong or severe. South wind 5-10 mph. Low: 64-68 ^oF. High: 88-92 ^oF. Heat Index: 90-94 ^oF. WBGT: 81-83 ^oF.
• Thursday: Sunny and warm with less humidity. West wind 5-10 mph. Low: 66-70 ^oF. High: 84-88 ^oF.
• Friday: Increasing clouds with scattered showers and thunderstorms possible in the afternoon, evening, and overnight (40% chance). East wind 8-13 mph. Low: 60-64 ^oF. High: 80-84 ^oF.

Forecast Discussion:

A backdoor cold front passed this morning and is currently located just to our southwest. Showers and thunderstorms remain possible in the vicinity of the boundary through early evening. Tuesday will likely be rain free with high pressure temporarily in control. Expect seasonable conditions under partly cloudy skies. The clouds will likely be stratus with a ceiling between 5,000 and 10,000 feet above ground level.

The figure below from the GFS/American model shows that by late afternoon/evening on Wednesday another front will be passing the area. Out ahead of the front, expect mostly sunny skies with hot and humid conditions. The high temperature will likely be around 91F with a heat index between 90-94F and WBGT between 81-83F (green flag). As the front approaches later in the day, there will likely be some scattered showers and thunderstorms that develop across Central Maryland. The front will provide the mechanical forcing and the hot/humid conditions will provide a favorable thermodynamic set-up. Right now, the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center has us categorized as a "marginal" risk for severe weather, with the greatest threat likely being disorganized storms with gusty winds. Right now, the more organized convection looks like it will remain to our north.

Temperatures will not change drastically behind the aforementioned front, but there will likely be a noticeable drop in the humidity on Thursday. Thursday will be sunny and seasonably warm.

Another cold front will likely be quickly approaching from our west on Friday. Scattered showers/storms are expected along the leading edge of the frontal system, but a few rogue pop-up showers/storms in advance of the system cannot be ruled-out at this time. The current data and model guidance suggest that the front won't reach us until the late afternoon/evening (see figure below showing the GFS/American model forecast at 1700 on Friday). Both the GFS/American Model and the ECMWF/European Model currently agree on this forecast solution for Friday. Out ahead of the front, Friday morning looks like a mix of sun and clouds, with increasing clouds in the late morning/early afternoon. Easterly winds off the Bay and Atlantic Ocean could also result in some pockets of late-morning drizzle (~10% chance).  The low temperature around sunrise will likely be in the mid-60s and temperatures will likely only climb into the mid-70s throughout the ceremony. 

Continue to check back for updates and information. Standard Five-day forecasts will be issued daily on weekdays during Commissioning Week, and detailed Graduation forecasts will be issued on 24 and 26 May, with an additional forecast on 27 May, if needed.  All forecasts can be accessed online at www.usna.edu/weather.

ISSUED: 24 May 2021 at 1430
FORECASTER: Meteorologist A.R. Davies

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Disclaimer: This is not an official U.S. Navy weather forecast and should not be confused with the official Navy weather forecast provided by the Fleet Weather Center in Norfolk, VA.  Furthermore, the official U.S. Government forecast for the greater Annapolis area is issued by the National Weather Service Baltimore/Washington Forecast Office in Sterling, VA. Click here for full disclaimer.

Category: General Interest