Commissioning Week Weather Forecast 2022
POSTED ON: Wednesday, May 18, 2022 7:58 AM by METEOROLOGIST A.R. DAVIES
- Wednesday: Partly cloudy and cool. East wind 8-13 mph. A slight chance for showers overnight (20% chance). High near 68 oF.
- Thursday: Mostly cloudy and mild with increasing humidity. Scattered light showers or sprinkles possible (20% chance). East wind 5-10 mph in the morning. South wind 8-13 mph in the afternoon, evening, and overnight. High: 72-76 oF.
- Friday: Partly cloudy, mild, breezy, and humid. Scattered showers possible through midday (30% chance). Showers and thunderstorms likely (80% chance) in the afternoon, evening, and overnight. Some storms could become strong or severe, and may contain locally heavy rainfall. Southwest wind 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph. High: 76-80 oF.
With a stalled front to our south and easterly flow, scattered low level clouds will linger throughout the day on Wednesday. However, the threat for rain/drizzle is low. The aforementioned stalled front will push back northward and through Central Maryland as a warm front on Thursday. As a result, there could be some passing light showers or sprinkles associated with the warm front, but rain chances will be low (20% chance) and precipitation amounts will be light.
As the front passes, the winds will shift from out of the east to out of the south. The southerly flow will warm temperature back into the 70s with a noticeable increase in humidity.
A potent cold front will likely pass on Friday. The timing of the front is the biggest variable at this point with a spread in model guidance. In consultation with the local National Weather Service (NWS) Baltimore/Washington Forecast Office, the most probabilistic scenario is a frontal passage after 1400 on Friday. The frontal passage will likely be associated with widespread showers and thunderstorms. With ample moisture in the air, locally heavy rainfall will be possible. The NWS Weather Prediction Center categorizes Central Maryland as under a “marginal risk” for flash flooding with a 5% chance with 25 miles. In addition, some storms could become strong or severe. The NWS Storm Prediction Center categorizes Central Maryland as under a “slight risk” for severe weather with a 15% chance within 25 miles.
The greatest chance for showers/storms with heavy rain and/or severe weather will be associated with the frontal passage. However, there still could be some pre-frontal showers on Friday morning. At this time, the most likely forecast between 0200 and 0800 on Friday is a 20% chance of showers, between 0800-1100 is a 30% chance of showers, and between 1100-1400 is a 40% chance of showers with perhaps an isolated embedded rumble of thunder. Rain chances increase significantly after 1400.
The timing of the frontal passage remains uncertain on Friday, and therefore the forecast could shift forward or backward depending on how things progress as we get closer. Daily forecasts will be posted online at www.usna.edu/weather.
ISSUED: 25 May 2022 at 1026
FORECASTER: Meteorologist A.R. Davies
Disclaimer: This is not an official U.S. Navy weather forecast and should not be confused with the official Navy weather forecast provided by the Fleet Weather Center in Norfolk, VA. Furthermore, the official U.S. Government forecast for the greater Annapolis area is issued by the National Weather Service Baltimore/Washington Forecast Office in Sterling, VA. Click here for full disclaimer.