Class of 2016 Graduation Forecast (26 May 2016)

  POSTED ON: Thursday, May 26, 2016 10:15 AM by Meteorologist A.R. Davies

Executive Summary: Thursday/Friday Weather Forecast

• Thursday: Mostly sunny and warm with increasing humidity.  Convective pop-up showers and thunderstorms are possible Thursday afternoon/evening (40% chance).  Southwest wind 8-12 mph. High: 84 ^oF.
• Thursday Night: Partly cloudy with a chance for showers and thunderstorms (30% chance). Southwest wind 8-12 mph. Low: 68 ^oF.
• 0600 EDT Friday: A slight chance for a lingering shower (10% chance). Otherwise, the sun will rise to mostly clear skies. Wind: Southwest around 5 mph.  Temperature: 69 ^oF. Heat Index: 70 ^oF.
• 0800 EDT Friday: Mostly sunny and warm. Wind: South around 5 mph.  Temperature: 72 ^oF. Heat Index: 73 ^oF.
• 1000 EDT Friday: Mostly sunny and warm. Wind: South around 5 mph.  Temperature: 76 ^oF. Heat Index: 78 ^oF.
• 1200 EDT Friday: Mostly sunny and warm. A slight chance (10%) for pop-up showers or thunderstorms. Wind: South 5-10 mph.  Temperature: 82 ^oF. Heat Index: 85 ^oF.
• 1400 EDT Friday: Mostly sunny and warm. A 30% chance for convective, pop-up showers or thunderstorms. Wind: South 5-10 mph.  Temperature: 85 ^oF. Heat Index: 90 ^oF.

The Weather Forecast (above) was issued on May 26, 2016 at 1000 EDT. Continue to checkwww.usna.edu/weather for the latest information. Additional updates will periodically be posted atwww.facebook.com/usnaweather. 

Forecast Discussion:

Southerly flow associated with an entrenched area of high pressure off the Southeast U.S. coast will usher in summer-like conditions on Thursday and Friday. Expect high temperatures in the mid 80’s this week with the dew point temperature (measure of how much moisture is in the air) increasing to a sticky 69 ^oF by Friday afternoon.  The heat index (i.e. what it “feels like”) on Thursday and Friday is expected to approach 90 ^oF in Annapolis.  These atmospheric conditions are contributing to the unhealthy air quality for sensitive groups.

The increase in the temperature and humidity will also mean a less stable atmosphere. Convective pop-up showers and thunderstorms could begin to flaring up west of Maryland after 1400 EDT on Thursday.  As shown in the simulated radar figure below, the threat for scattered showers and storms will persist through the evening and overnight as an upper level wave of energy moves through the area. There is a slight chance that isolated showers could linger into early Friday morning.  The most favorable conditions for thunderstorm development Thursday evening/overnight will be north of Baltimore. Any linger shower activity will likely be out of the area by 0600 EDT on Friday morning.

Showers and thunderstorms could once again develop on Friday afternoon/evening. Indeed the dew point temperatures and humidity will be on the rise Friday, resulting in an even less stable atmosphere. However, at this time it appears there will be a window between 0600 and 1200 EDT with a very low probability (<5% chance) of showers or thunderstorms. The caveat is that with this unstable of an atmosphere, there will always be a very small chance that a shower or thunderstorm could develop at any time.  The chance for showers and thunderstorms increases to 10-20% between 1200 and 1400 EDT, with a 30% chance after 1400 EDT.  The simulated radar below shows the development of the pop-up showers and thunderstorms throughout the day on Friday   Otherwise, expect partly sunny skies on Friday.  Warm and humid conditions will persist.

Note: This forecast was made in coordination with the National Weather Service Baltimore/Washington Forecast Office in Sterling, VA. Special thanks to them for their continued support and assistance throughout the week!

Category: General Interest