USNA Weather Forecast

Forecast Discussion:

High pressure overhead today will retreat northward later today. Meanwhile a stalled front to our south will lift northward into the region overnight. The dew point (humidity) will notably increase overnight and into the day tomorrow, and the front will serve as a focal point for convection. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday morning, with more widespread showers and thunderstorms in the late afternoon, evening, and overnight. The National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center has categorized Central Maryland as under a “slight” risk (level 2/5) for severe weather on Tuesday with a 5% chance of a tornado, 30% chance of damaging wind gusts >58 mph, and 15% chance of hail >1.0 inch in diameter within 25 miles. The SPC currently has a region of “enhanced” risk (level 3/5) just north and west of the metro regions, but it is possible that the risk region will be expanded eastward tomorrow.  In addition, the NWS Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has categorized Central Maryland as under a “slight” risk (level 2/4) for excessive rainfall with a 15% chance of flash flooding within 25 miles. While individual storms could contain locally heavy or torrential rainfall, the flash flooding risk is more likely during the late evening or overnight hours due to slow moving or training storms. Although not formally included in the severe weather threat, convection within the storms will likely be strong enough to produce frequent and intense lightning.

The aforementioned front will likely wobble back to our south slowly on Wednesday. The exact position will impact overall rain chances on Wednesday. For now, I left a chance for rain/storms but there is considerable uncertainty in the overall forecast for the day. The good news is that Thursday and Friday will dry-out with pleasant (low humidity!) conditions.